With 10 horses representing nine wagering interests (Scrimshaw-Senor Swinger coupled) set to prance to post Saturday for the 128th Preakness Stakes, the challenge is to concoct a wagering strategy that would offer a chance to yield a decent profit.
THE MAJORITY OF handicappers will view this as an impossible task. Both morning-line favorites Funny Cide (7-5) and Peace Rules (8-5) — the 1-3 finishers in the Kentucky Derby — appear to tower over the opposition. With Empire Maker, Dynever and Atswhatimtalknbout on hold for the upcoming Belmont Stakes, there does not appear to be a serious challenger for the dynamic duo unless they both crack from their rigorous Derby efforts. But here’s the key question — do they have to run 1-2 in the Preakness exacta?
If you believe that they will, you are better off keeping the money in your pocket. Who needs a $10-$15 dollar exacta on the Funny Cide-Peace Rules box? As my daddy taught me years ago, never bet a lot to make a little. It is my belief that the best gamble Saturday is that the two favorites will likely not run 1-2 in the exacta. My focus then turns to the likely long shots that could finish second under either or both of the two favorites.
Let us examine the prospects:
No. 1: The Scrimshaw-Senor Swinger entry (5-1 morning line) — The problem here is an obvious one. Taken separately, both horses would enjoy a shot at running second behind the two chalks. Scrimshaw did not have the smoothest of trips in Louisville and Senor Swinger features the popular turf-to-dirt angle that is always an effective strategy. But at 5-1 in the morning line, this entry offers little wagering value since other contenders are just as fast with much higher odds. Pass.
No. 2 Cherokee’s Boy (15-1) — This local entry figures to have no impact on the race. Pass.
No. 3 Foufa’s Warrior (20-1) — A case could be made that this stretch-runner could clunk up for second, third or fourth if the expected pace is as sizzling as it looks on paper. But that’s a pipe dream. Pass.
No. 4 Kissin Saint (20-1) — Third beaten eight lengths in the key Wood Memorial, this horse has license to improve for trainer Lisa Lewis. And 20-1 is a horrible line, so count him in the mix.
No. 5 Ten Cents a Shine (15-1) — Between a lung infection and dental problems, this horse has had excuse after excuse after excuse. But he ran a very well-disguised race in the Kentucky Derby to finish a sneaky seventh, worked a bullet half-mile in :46 seconds this week at Churchill, and gets the services of jockey Jerry Bailey. That may hurt his odds, but he’s in my exacta figures as long as the price is right.
No. 6 Midway Road (20-1) — Owner Will Farish has a legitimate sleeper with this son of Jade Hunter who ran lights out in an allowance race at Keeneland more than three weeks ago. His opponents that day were suspect, but figures are figures. And 20-1 is another bad line. Count him in the exacta hunt.
No. 8 New York Hero (20-1) — His natural early speed will insure the attention of the riders of the two favorites, particularly since he breaks from the post directly between them on the outside. If allowed to skate to an easy lead, he could also grab a piece of the exacta and/or trifecta. But Edgar Prado and Jose Santos would never allow such a scenario. From the poor outside post, I’ll pass on New York Hero.
As for the favorites, they are difficult to separate. Peace Rules won the battle in the Louisiana Derby. Funny Cide turned the tables in the Kentucky Derby. Both are quality speed-types that can withstand pace pressure that they will surely encounter from either New York Hero, Midway Road or both.
At Preakness post-time, my sense is that the Derby winner will be at 8-5 odds and that Peace Rules will be 2-1 or 5-2 on the tote. My wagering strategy is to play both horses on top in the exacta and three long shots in the second position — a $12 incremental wager with the hopes of getting a minimum of a $50 ticket for a $2 bet. If the probable returns are worthy, I will bark the following six exacta combinations at the window — 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 9-4, 9-5, 9-6 ... in other words, Peace Rules over Kissin Saint, Ten Cents a Shine and Midway Road, and Funny Cide over the same trio.
If the favorites run 1-2, so be it.
We’ll wait for the Belmont Stakes to get even.
Maybe even worse.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/913784.asp
THE MAJORITY OF handicappers will view this as an impossible task. Both morning-line favorites Funny Cide (7-5) and Peace Rules (8-5) — the 1-3 finishers in the Kentucky Derby — appear to tower over the opposition. With Empire Maker, Dynever and Atswhatimtalknbout on hold for the upcoming Belmont Stakes, there does not appear to be a serious challenger for the dynamic duo unless they both crack from their rigorous Derby efforts. But here’s the key question — do they have to run 1-2 in the Preakness exacta?
If you believe that they will, you are better off keeping the money in your pocket. Who needs a $10-$15 dollar exacta on the Funny Cide-Peace Rules box? As my daddy taught me years ago, never bet a lot to make a little. It is my belief that the best gamble Saturday is that the two favorites will likely not run 1-2 in the exacta. My focus then turns to the likely long shots that could finish second under either or both of the two favorites.
Let us examine the prospects:
No. 1: The Scrimshaw-Senor Swinger entry (5-1 morning line) — The problem here is an obvious one. Taken separately, both horses would enjoy a shot at running second behind the two chalks. Scrimshaw did not have the smoothest of trips in Louisville and Senor Swinger features the popular turf-to-dirt angle that is always an effective strategy. But at 5-1 in the morning line, this entry offers little wagering value since other contenders are just as fast with much higher odds. Pass.
No. 2 Cherokee’s Boy (15-1) — This local entry figures to have no impact on the race. Pass.
No. 3 Foufa’s Warrior (20-1) — A case could be made that this stretch-runner could clunk up for second, third or fourth if the expected pace is as sizzling as it looks on paper. But that’s a pipe dream. Pass.
No. 4 Kissin Saint (20-1) — Third beaten eight lengths in the key Wood Memorial, this horse has license to improve for trainer Lisa Lewis. And 20-1 is a horrible line, so count him in the mix.
No. 5 Ten Cents a Shine (15-1) — Between a lung infection and dental problems, this horse has had excuse after excuse after excuse. But he ran a very well-disguised race in the Kentucky Derby to finish a sneaky seventh, worked a bullet half-mile in :46 seconds this week at Churchill, and gets the services of jockey Jerry Bailey. That may hurt his odds, but he’s in my exacta figures as long as the price is right.
No. 6 Midway Road (20-1) — Owner Will Farish has a legitimate sleeper with this son of Jade Hunter who ran lights out in an allowance race at Keeneland more than three weeks ago. His opponents that day were suspect, but figures are figures. And 20-1 is another bad line. Count him in the exacta hunt.
No. 8 New York Hero (20-1) — His natural early speed will insure the attention of the riders of the two favorites, particularly since he breaks from the post directly between them on the outside. If allowed to skate to an easy lead, he could also grab a piece of the exacta and/or trifecta. But Edgar Prado and Jose Santos would never allow such a scenario. From the poor outside post, I’ll pass on New York Hero.
As for the favorites, they are difficult to separate. Peace Rules won the battle in the Louisiana Derby. Funny Cide turned the tables in the Kentucky Derby. Both are quality speed-types that can withstand pace pressure that they will surely encounter from either New York Hero, Midway Road or both.
At Preakness post-time, my sense is that the Derby winner will be at 8-5 odds and that Peace Rules will be 2-1 or 5-2 on the tote. My wagering strategy is to play both horses on top in the exacta and three long shots in the second position — a $12 incremental wager with the hopes of getting a minimum of a $50 ticket for a $2 bet. If the probable returns are worthy, I will bark the following six exacta combinations at the window — 7-4, 7-5, 7-6, 9-4, 9-5, 9-6 ... in other words, Peace Rules over Kissin Saint, Ten Cents a Shine and Midway Road, and Funny Cide over the same trio.
If the favorites run 1-2, so be it.
We’ll wait for the Belmont Stakes to get even.
Maybe even worse.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/913784.asp
